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View Full Version : Sensex rally hinges on global cues- Index Outlook


markettrend766
13-10-2008, 05:34 AM
Stock markets around the world fell sharply during the week ended as investor fears about the global financial crises deepened. The thesis that there would be no spillover is no longer valid and the "speed of crises" has triggered panic. Registering their biggest ever weekly falls, the Sensex crashed by 1,998 points or 16 per cent to end at 10,240 and the Nifty shed 538 points or 14 per cent to close at 3,280. Sharp losses of over 20 per cent were seen in the midcap and the smallcap indices reflecting the "fear factor" that has gripped the markets. Continuous selling by FIIs resulted in the single biggest weekly dollar outflow of $7.9 billion sparking further weakness in rupee.

Co-ordinated steps by the RBI and the Sebi to ease liquidity failed to enthuse the market. Analysts expect the RBI to cut interest rates in its next meeting to boost growth.

Experts feel that oil prices could fall to $60 a barrel or lower if the global economy slows to less than two per cent.

In near-term, markets are going to move in line with global cues. A sharp pullback rally is not ruled out on the back of some co-ordinated steps by the governments and the central banks of the major countries. With moves of 500 to 800 points on the Sensex and 150 to 200 points on the Nifty becoming common, technicals have a limited role in periods of intense volatility.

Below last week lows, indices may touch 9,700 or 8,800 on the Sensex and 3,120 or 2,940 on the Nifty. The resistances to the indices in the week ahead will be 10,800 and 11,400 for the Sensex and 3,480 and 3,800 for the Nifty.

Start nibbling at good stocks which are exhibiting relative bullish strength.